A strong El Niño winter: what it may mean for the coat you buy in Toronto
Updated October 2026 · Sam’s Menswear editorial team
Updated after NOAA’s 8 October discussion. The next update is due on 12 November.
Most Toronto men buy a winter coat for the winter they remember. This year the forecasters are describing a different one.
What NOAA said on 8 October
The US Climate Prediction Center, which issues the official El Niño outlook, wrote on 8 October 2026 that El Niño “continues to strengthen”. The key figures:
- More than an 83% chance of a strong-to-very strong El Niño through January–March 2027.
- An 83% chance, for October–December, that it becomes a historic event, stronger than any recorded since 1950.
- The central Pacific index (Niño-3.4) is already at +2.1°C above normal.
NOAA adds the important caveat itself: with an event this strong, the usual El Niño effects are more likely, “though not guaranteed”.
What a very strong El Niño has meant for Ontario
ClimateData.ca, the federally supported climate portal, summarises the past very strong El Niños like this:
- Warmer winters, with the strongest warming east of the Rockies, through Ontario and Quebec. The Canadian seasonal forecast it cites leans towards above-normal temperatures in Ontario for December to February.
- More of the winter falls as rain, and snow cover shrinks over Ontario and Quebec.
- A higher risk of extreme events, freezing rain above all. The Great Ice Storm of 1998 was partly caused by the very strong El Niño of 1997–98.
A normal Toronto winter, for comparison (Environment Canada’s 1991–2020 normals, Toronto Pearson):
| Dec | Jan | Feb | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean temperature | −1.6°C | −5.0°C | −4.4°C |
| Snowfall | 24.1 cm | 31.5 cm | 27.7 cm |
| Days with freezing rain or drizzle | 0.9 | 2.0 | 1.1 |
A milder El Niño winter shifts some of that snow into rain and slush, and some of it into ice.
So what coat?
Not a lighter coat: a better-matched pair. A wet winter near zero is harder on cloth than a dry, cold one.
- A trench or a raincoat for the wet days. Rain at 2°C is the most common bad day in a mild Toronto winter, and a heavy wool coat soaks through and stays damp. A trench in a tightly woven cloth sheds a shower and dries overnight.
- A mid-weight wool or cashmere overcoat for the cold days, rather than the heaviest cloth you can find. If the forecast holds, the deep-freeze days will be fewer, and a mid-weight coat over a suit covers most of the season.
- Hems and shoes. A wetter winter means more slush and more salt on the street. Road salt and your suit →
Sam makes trench coats and raincoats as well as cashmere coats, Chesterfields, polo coats, covert coats, topcoats, car coats and peacoats, each cut to your measurements and measured over the jacket you wear under it. He does not make down coats. Overcoat styles, explained → · Down coat or wool overcoat? →
When to order
A custom coat takes 35 days from the first appointment.
| Order by | Ready |
|---|---|
| Thu 15 Oct | Thu 19 Nov |
| Fri 30 Oct | Fri 4 Dec |
| Fri 13 Nov | Fri 18 Dec |
| Fri 27 Nov | Fri 1 Jan |
Ontario searches for “overcoat” peak in the week of 20 November every year, so ordering in October puts you ahead of the rush. Overcoat by 16 October → Sam can come to your office or home for the first appointment and the fitting, or visit the studio in Vaughan.
Where the numbers come from
- The El Niño outlook: NOAA Climate Prediction Center, ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, issued 8 October 2026.
- Ontario effects and the Canadian seasonal forecast: ClimateData.ca, “What the developing exceptional El Niño means for Canada in 2026–27”.
- Normals: Environment and Climate Change Canada, 1991–2020, Toronto Pearson.
A forecast is a probability. This page will be updated after NOAA’s next discussion on 12 November.